Yar’Adua One Year Later - Impaired by Imposition, Ill-Preparedness, Illegitimacy and Ill-Health

My assessment of his first year in office is poor. I would give him a D if grading him.

Let me explain.

Imposition

Until May 2007 when the Third Term Agenda of President Obasanjo collapsed, it is arguable if anybody in his ruling PDP could sincerely and openly prepare to take over from him without constantly looking over his shoulder. The only person who made such a move – first in 2002/2003 and then again in 2006/2007 – was Vice-President Alhaji Abubakar Atiku.

We all know what happened to him.

With the collapse of TTA, Obasanjo had to cast around very quickly for a successor, with at least five characteristics in mind: (i) he had to be a Northerner, to fulfill the unofficial rotational motif of the office of the Presidency; (ii) he had to have some executive experience, meaning that he had to be a current or former governor, military or civilian; (iii) he had to be relatively clean from EFCC probings, because Obasanjo had used the EFCC to intimidate many self-chosen would-be successors, and had therefore limited his own options, otherwise he would be accused of open hypocrisy; (iv) he had to be personally loyal enough to Obasanjo to pledge to follow some or all of his programs (the continuity argument) and (v) he had to protect him (Obasanjo) from the numerous enemies he made along the way, and the many accusations of financial and moral corruption that had been swarming around him throughout his own tenure.

It was only when he was announced that most of us knew it – even the keenest Nigeria watchers was taken by surprise – but the ONLY person who fit this bill was Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, then little-known governor of Northern state of Katsina, and conveniently the brother of Obasanjo’s soldier-soul-mate, the late Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, fatal victim of Abacha’s Gulag..

Knowing that the rather little-known and in fact colorless Yar’Adua could not plead his own case in a free-and-fair contest, Obasanjo made it a do-or-die proposition to impose Yar’Adua, first on the ruling PDP party – stepping on many ambitious political bodies in the process – and then went on to hector the whole country as he held Yar’Adua’s hands up and substituted his own voice everywhere in the campaign hustings. Obasanjo could not have campaigned harder if he himself were on the ticket. Applying the intimidatory antics of Ribadu’s EFCC (on presidential candidates like Vice-President Abubakar Atiku and wannabes like Rivers State Governor Peter Odili, etc.), the compliant INEC machinery under Prof. Maurice Iwu, and the police complicity of IG Sunday Ehindero’s NPF completed the equation to “deliver” Yar’Adua in the worst flawed elections ever in Nigeria’s history in April 2007.

Yar’Adua’s imposition therefore created enemies (of his own and his godfather Obasanjo) and lukewarm supporters both within and without his party, with its attendant consequences.

I believe that in this his first year, he has had to fight some of those consequences of those who would naturally not wish him to succeed.

Ill-Preparedness

One of Shagari’s limitations was that he had indicated before he became President in 1979 that his ambition in life was only limited to becoming a Senator before he was reluctantly convinced to take on the arduous task of President.. A similar admission has been credited to Yar’Adua, who had hoped to return quietly to teaching Analytical Chemistry at a Northern university after his term as governor of Katsina was over in 2007 – before Aremu Obasanjo set his eyes on him.

To go from Governor of Katsina to President of Nigeria is a big leap – and it has shown in his first year. We understand for example that Yar’Adua attended only about half of the several Council of State meetings convened under the eight-year rule of Obasanjo. Yar’Adua’s travel within Nigeria itself before he started campaigning is reported to have been limited – I am yet to confirm for example that he had NEVER visited Port Harcourt BEFORE he campaigned in that critical Niger-Delta city. Certainly, he had NEVER visited the United States before, and was overwhelmed when he visited George Bush in Washington DC during his first year – and incredibly told his host so, to the horror of some of us Nigerian citizens. His many (and possibly only) visits abroad were to Germany – to take care of his health. Clearly, he did not have a wide network of political and administrative contacts within Nigeria – or outside the Northern Nigerian axis for that matter - to draw upon when he became president. This has shown in the kind of non-vibrant ministers which he has surrounded himself with, with hints of accusations of “Northernization” of key positions. One doubts whether he ever had any serious conversation with his Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan (and briefly colleague from the small but oil-rich state of Bayelsa) before they become shackled together in the Presidency. Consequently, his hope that Goodluck’s Niger-Delta connections would “deliver” the peace of that volatile region was clearly misconceived.

Programmatically, Yar’Adua’s ill-preparedness means that he has had to adopt hook-line-and-sinker the top-down Vision 2020 program of his predecessor Obasanjo, but distilled rather quickly into his own seven-point agenda of (i). Power and Energy (ii) Food Security and Agriculture; (iii) Wealth Creation and Employment (iv) Mass Transportation (v) Land Reform (vi) Security and (vi) Qualitative and Functional Education and two special interest issues (i) Niger Delta and (ii) Disadvantaged Groups.

It is on these programs that his first year and subsequent years must ultimately be judged.

In fairness, a number of the more wrong-headed and dubious policies and actions of Obasanjo have been reversed by the Yar’Adua administration, but some of those reversals themselves have since been reversed. As a result, one is not really keen to keep a catalog of those reversals. More importantly, very few positive initiatives have been implemented – except for the comprehensive Gas Policy enunciated under his watch – which can be a result of his ill-preparedness.

Just as we had Obasanjo’s mantra of “Dividends of Democracy”, Yar’Adua administration’s most abiding mantra in this first year has been his emphasis on “Rule of Law and Due Process”. He even admitted this as his most visible achievement in a recent interview to Financial Times. Clearly, this particular mantra was not even enunciated as one of his seven-point agenda, and one can only therefore consider it an afterthought, some kind of back-handed repudiation of the legacy of his immediate predecessor. Yet “Rule of Law” is a neutral term – even dictators and autocrats talk of “Rule of Law” – their own law . One should talk more about “Enforceable and Enforced Rule of Good Law”.

That mantra of Rule of Law is already being violated in the breach. For example, there are serious ongoing interferences with the EFCC by the Yar’Adua administration (after attempts to cage Ibori and Iyabo Obasanjo) - Nuhu Ribadu has been stepped aside for Ibrahim Lamorde, who has now also been replaced by Mrs. Farida Waziri all within the year. There have been attempts by the letter-writing Attorney-General Aondoakaa to unfetter favored persons (for example Ibori, Etete, etc.) from legal claws both domestic and foreign. There is even talk of accusations of violating the recently-passed 2008 budget with calls already for Yar’Adua’s impeachment More annoyingly, the gubernatorial election re-runs under Yar’Adua’s presidency – which are STILL under INEC Iwu’s administration – have been as bad if not worse than that of Obasanjo’s, with Yar’Adua even joining in in some gubernatorial campaigns. No surprise: every one of the PDP governors that were kicked out by the Election tribunals have been returned after the new elections – so what else is new?

Illegitimacy

Imposition on his party and concern about not being able to overcome the limitations of ill-preparedness ultimately led to a seriously flawed electoral process that resulted in an illegitimate outcome of theApril 2007 presidential elections, under INEC and refereed by Maurice Iwu. Whether Yar’Adua would have won in a free-and-fair contest over Abubakar Atiku and Muhammadu Buhari is beside the point. However the extent that the Obasanjo administration went to exclude Atiku from contesting the presidency – with the Supreme Court having to rule for his inclusion only five days to the elections – and the serious logistical nightmare that attended the elections themselves (lack of voters’ register; lack of serial numbers in the ballot papers; missing, late or flawed ballot papers, violence, etc.) de-legitimized the elections so much that both domestic and international observers termed them LESS than Nigerian standards, not to talk of African or international ones.

Yet a Presidential Appeals Court which heard the complaints of Atiku and Buhari incredibly saw no evil and heard no evil, and ruled unanimously in Yar’Adua’s favor, with nary a complaint against INEC. Yar’Adua thereby lost an opportunity to even get a veneer of legitimacy and some breathing room. One believes that Atiku and Buhari might have ended their complaints earlier under different circumstances – but they are now seeking vindication at the Supreme Court, which means that a sword of Damocles still hangs over Yar’Adua’s head one year after inauguration.

That burden of illegitimacy in this first year cannot be completely comforting, both to those domestic or foreign who might sincerely wish to work in or with his administration on some long-term basis.

Ill-Health

One thing that one could never fault Obasanjo on was that he was a vigorous man – maybe too vigorous in some respects – but he could work from morning to night on Nigerian and other issues, and did not let any medical conditions slow him down. To be a president of any country, least of all Nigeria, has to be a twenty-three-hour business. Obasanjo burnt his candles on both ends by all accounts, even if the outcomes of all his eight-year efforts did not bear him out due to his limitations and that of the political appointees around him, some of who we now know were thieving left, right and center, while preaching an anti-corruption mantra.

Yar’Adua’s Churg-Strauss Syndrome (CSS) disease - a rare disease that features inflammation of blood vessels (also referred to as angiitis) in the lungs, skin, nerves, and abdomen - is not terminal, but our man in Abuja is a chronically ill man, and has been such since at least 1986, when according to his own admission, he has been constantly under German doctors’ watch.

Clearly, he cannot work till midnight or through the night as Obasanjo is famed to be able to do. In fact, rumor has it that by 6 pm to 8 pm, maybe earlier, he is quietly resting, no visitors allowed thank you but his voluble wife Turai and a few others.. What time he usually wakes up, I do not know, but maybe spokesperson Segun Adeniyi can inform us accordingly.

Moving on…

Not only do the consequences of that illness contrast sharply with the time effort put in by Obasanjo – and is nowhere comparable to the chain-smoking habits of Alhaji Shagari - but it leads to all kinds of daily speculations about what would/could happen to the geopolitical calculations surrounding the presidency if he suddenly passed away. It could have figured into the selection of the relatively tame and ineffectual Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan, and will certainly be responsible for the number of Northerners waiting in the wings in case something untoward suddenly happens to Yar’Adua.

Constitutionally, Goodluck Jonathan should take over from Yar’Adua in that eventuality. Politically, that may be a short-lived arrangement in which he (Jonathan) makes way for an arranged Northern successor - initially appointed by him as Vice-President and quickly approved by the National Assembly - and then quickly returns once more as Vice-President.

All these are of course Byzantine speculations – but there is an inherent instability in governance when every late wake-up by the President, a cough, a slip, a headache or (malaria) fever leads to a potential medical crisis as recently witnessed when Yar’Adua had to be flown abroad summarily, and more so when did not return when he was expected to.

His first year in office has had its own share of these medical furloughs and political imaginings and machinations.

Any Good News?

There is. Yar’Adua appears to be a decent and simple man not given to loudness and excessive pomp and pageantry of office. He appears comfortable in his own skin and does not pinch himself over his attainment of high office. Those characteristics also seemed to have rubbed off on the vast majority of his political appointees, leading to a commendable reduction in the temperature of governance compared with the Obasanjo era. However, the voluble and peregrinating First Lady Turai (not an appointee) has filled in loudly in many respects. The competence of his Secretary to the Federal Government Baba Gana Kingibe and Media Spokesperson Segun Adeniyi is notable, even though that list is rather too short.

Yar’Adua also has shown to have a political conscience in that he quickly acknowledged the flawed nature of the elections that ushered him in, whereupon he set up an Electoral Reform Committee under former Chief Justice Uwais. His attempt at forming a Unity Government was largely rebuffed, but at least he tried to temper the effects of his imposition and illegitimacy.

Finally, in probably mitigating his ill-preparedness, he has assumed a very deliberative style of planning which has been criticized as being too ponderous and tentative, leading to a graduation of Obasanjo’s moniker of simply “Baba” to ones of Yar’Adua being “Baba Go-Slow” or even “Baba Full Stop.”

Patience appears required therefore to see how his planning pans out.

The Way Forward

I have claimed above that the combination of ill-health, imposition, illegitimacy, and ill-preparedness have all impaired Yar’Adua’s performance in this his first year.

So where do we go from here ? If our lot under a particular leader has not improved since the past year - violating Reagan’s universal test for commendable leadership - and might have actually worsened in several areas, what prospect do we have for the future?

One can only continue to pray for Yar’Adua’s health and trust that he will continue to manage his chronic illness both in and out of the country – hopefully more in than out since most Nigerians need improved health care themselves and cannot travel abroad for malaria treatment. Next, with respect to imposition, what is done is done, but with Obasanjo still hovering over the PDP as he holds on to the Chairmanship of the Board of Trustees, the odor of that imposition will continue to follow Yar’Adua around. Finally, his illegitimacy might be ameliorated once and for all if his election were ultimately annulled by the Supreme Court, and then he ran again successfully on his own steam - or if he is left in place, then the excessively biased blind rulings of the Appeal Court were corrected and INEC given a serious red card.

But more important than all the above, from here on, it is how he makes up for his lack of preparedness and how he impacts on his seven-point agenda and two special issues that he will be judged. Under no circumstances should this lack of preparedness be masked under the euphemism of deliberate and purposeful planning as presidential spokesperson Segun Adeniyi has done in his own recent one-year assessment of his boss’s record.

With respect to his seven-point agenda, first, Yar’Adua administration’s gas-based Energy/Electric Power policy must be linked to the Niger-Delta crisis; we await emergency declaration in both sectors. The present rumored total of 1000 MW power generation for a nation of 140 million people is atrocious and simply unacceptable. Secondly, despite the fact the world market per-barrel oil price is more than twice the $59 that our latest 2008 budget is based on– and there is yet no joy in the country – shows the folly of having a mono-cultural economy based on oil. Hence both a value-added manufacturing sector, coupled with a inward-looking agricultural policy – not one that is focused on importing billions of dollars of rice from abroad – are paramount, ones that provide both food security and employment.. Thirdly, a truly bold reformation and restructuring of the Nigerian Police Force based on decentralization and community policing – and moving away from the traditional fears of a state police - to improve local security to life, limb and property must be embarked upon without delay. Finally, mass employment will be further aided by embarking upon mass transportation infrastructure development – not just roads, but rail and waterways as well.

Epilogue

The purpose of any people-centered governance is to improve the health, wealth, education, security, general well-being and dignity of citizens. You can plan all you want, but if none of these areas is impacted both in the short run and long run, no amount of patience can be urged. That is Yar’Adua’s challenge – or of any body who might succeed him.

The long-suffering Nigerian people are waiting.

May May 29, 2009 be a better day than May 29, 2008. [Amen.]

Mobolaji E. Aluko, PhD, is a professor of Chemical Engineering at Howard University, in Washington DC, USA. He can be reached at alukome@gmail.com